Policy-Driven Demand: China Magnesium Exports Jump 12.6% in September, Raising Sustainability Concerns [SMM Analysis]

China Magnesium Exports in September Increased 12.6% Month-on-Month to 43,500 Tons, Policy Uncertainty Pulls Forward October Demand

In September 2025, China's total export volume of magnesium products reached 43,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.6%; the cumulative export volume of metal magnesium products in 2025 was 340,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.27% compared to the same period last year. September saw strong export momentum for magnesium products, with major products—magnesium ingots, magnesium alloys, and magnesium powder—all maintaining high export levels. Notably, the export volume of magnesium ingots increased by 23.88% month-on-month, reaching the highest level this year.

In the short term, the primary stimulus for the high export volume in September was the export policy scheduled to take effect on October 1. Downstream buyers and traders were uncertain about whether customs declaration inspections would become stricter and the expected intensity of enforcement, leading to a concentration of orders released in early September and shipped before the end of the month to avoid the uncertainty of policy management in October. On the other hand, a decrease in freight costs for routes to Europe and other regions in September prompted some traders to ship earlier. Additionally, as production gradually increased in September and magnesium prices continued to decline, many orders from August were postponed to September for execution. These factors collectively contributed to the significant rise in overall export volume for September. However, this also means that some orders were pulled forward, and it is expected that October orders may see a slight decline, with export volumes subsequently falling.

From a demand perspective, the U.S. tariff increases after April indirectly suppressed the export demand for metal magnesium, with downstream users such as overseas automotive and aluminum industries experiencing a sharp decline in demand due to economic downturns. However, as the new tariff policy was finalized, the market has shown a gradual recovery in data, with export volumes rising significantly since July this year, reflecting strong order demand from overseas markets in the second half of the year. By September, the overall export volume had recovered to last year's level. However, it is unlikely that this level can be maintained in October, as the high export volume in September has, to some extent, pulled forward subsequent demand. Therefore, the overall overseas demand this year still falls short of last year's level and can only be described as being in a recovery phase. End-users remain generally pessimistic about the market trend for the second half of the year and even into next year.

Surge in Magnesium Ingots Fails to Mask Weak Overseas Demand, Magnesium Alloy Sees Steady Growth

Looking at product categories, the export volume of magnesium ingots in September reached 27,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23.88%; the cumulative export volume of magnesium ingots in 2025 was 193,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.88%, making it the main driver of this month's export growth. The surge in magnesium ingots in September was primarily due to the concentrated delivery of orders from multiple periods: including backlogged orders from August, new orders from September, and the full shipment of forward warehouse arrival orders. This also indicates an increase in overseas inventory levels and suggests that new orders in the fourth quarter may decline significantly. Therefore, this month's export growth does not indicate a substantial recovery in overseas demand for magnesium ingots.

The export volume of magnesium powder was 6,029 tons, a slight month-on-month increase of 1.21%; the cumulative export volume in 2025 decreased by 9.05% year-on-year. The overall overseas demand for magnesium powder has remained weak, particularly as export volumes have trended downward in the second half of the year. According to SMM research, the upcoming export control policy in October has, to some extent, suppressed order demand for magnesium powder, coupled with the poor economic conditions of overseas steel mills. Thus, it is expected that October order volumes are unlikely to see significant growth.

The export volume of magnesium alloy was 8,582 tons, a slight month-on-month increase of 0.14%; the cumulative export volume in 2025 increased by 0.33% year-on-year. It can be observed that after a brief decline in June and July, magnesium alloy orders have shown a significant recovery. As the first year of magnesium alloy development, in addition to strong domestic demand in China, the expansion of new technologies and application scenarios overseas has supported maintained high demand levels. However, it is also important to note that the layout of overseas scrap magnesium recycling plants is gradually increasing. In the long term, the proportion of locally produced magnesium alloy is expected to gradually increase, potentially reducing dependence on Chinese exports.

Netherlands Leads Surge in Magnesium Ingot Exports, Europe and North America Support Overall Magnesium Product Exports

Based on country-specific export data, the Netherlands performed particularly prominently in magnesium ingot exports, with a September export volume of 6,648 tons, a significant month-on-month increase of 12.64%. This growth mainly stemmed from the concentrated delivery of orders for the third and fourth quarters, reflecting that the European market was the main region driving the growth in magnesium ingot exports this month. India and Japan followed closely, with exports of 4,654 tons and 4,040 tons respectively, indicating sustained stable demand and strong import resilience from these two countries.

Looking at the export structure of magnesium powder and magnesium alloy, Canada ranked among the top in both product categories, demonstrating steady performance. Specifically, exports of magnesium powder to Canada were 1,594 tons, and magnesium alloy exports were 1,281 tons, indicating relatively stable overall demand for magnesium products in this country. Demand for magnesium alloy in Europe also showed a growth trend, with the Netherlands and Germany accounting for 1,433 tons and 553 tons respectively. It is speculated that the driving factors include not only new demand from the automotive industry but also possibly applications in lightweight transportation such as electric two-wheelers.

September Export Summary

In September 2025, China's magnesium product exports achieved a significant month-on-month increase of 12.6%, driven by factors including the policy window period, lower freight costs, and declining magnesium prices. However, this round of growth exhibited clear "pull-forward" characteristics and is unlikely to be sustainable. Structurally, the growth was primarily driven by magnesium ingots, which saw a nearly 24% month-on-month surge, propelled by concentrated order deliveries in markets like the Netherlands and other European countries. Magnesium alloy demand remained stable due to new application expansions, while magnesium powder continued to show weakness, reflecting sluggish demand in traditional industrial sectors. Although European and North American markets served as the core support for this month's exports, rising overseas inventories, pessimistic end-user expectations, and the long-term layout of local recycling capacities all indicate that new orders in the fourth quarter may face a decline, putting pressure on a full recovery of overseas demand for the year.